Seismic risk parameter for Neelum-Jhelum hydropower project in AJK in the light of post-October 08, 2005 Muzaffarabad Earthquake scenario
Iftikhar Ahmad 1 and Zulfiqar Ahmad 2
1College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Punjab University, Lahore, Pakistan
2Department of Earth Sciences, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan
Neelum-Jhelum hydropower project is one of the key projects for the hydropower development in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). It will provide 969 MW of hydropower. The dam site is located about 41 km from Muzaffarabad in AJK at latitude 34º20'N and longitude 73º40'E. The earthquake of October 08, 2005 in Muzaffarabad, with magnitude 7.6 on Richter scale, caused huge damage to life and property. Therefore, it was imperative to study the seismic risk factor of the proposed Neelum-Jhelum Dam for the safety of the dam as well as downstream area and population. This paper presents a review of the geological aspects of the dam project with reference to the major catastrophic hazard. High seismic areas have been identified in the vicinity of the project area with the utilization of recent and previously published data.
The geology of the area with reference to the seismic activities was studied. Major rupture zones along fault lines in the area have been highlighted. Up-to-date earthquake data for the present work was collected. Tectonic features causing earthquake in the region were studied. Desk studies were carried out to process the data and its interpretation.
Based on the data collected, seismic risk parameters were estimated by means of computer modeling study. The outcome of the study presents the peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, response spectra and maximum credible earthquake in the selected region for the Neelum-Jhelum hydropower project. The result from the present study revealed that peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity require special consideration for the safety of the dam. Response Spectra Acceleration for different return periods and Maximum Credible Earthquake for the area were also estimated in the light of October 8 major catastrophic event. Recommendations are made for the earthquake resistant design of Neelum-Jhelum hydropower project for the safety of the dam as well as of downstream areas. |
