An overview of Post-October 08, 2005, Muzaffarabad earthquake scenario

MonaLisa and M. Qasim Jan

Department of Earth Sciences, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan

A massive earthquake of magnitude 7.6 Mw occurred 100 km NE of Islamabad at 0850 local time (0350 GMT) on October 08, 2005. Its tremors were felt across the region from Kabul to Delhi, and parts of northern Pakistan and Kashmir were decimated. The epicenter of the earthquake, located 19 km NE of the city of Muzaffarabad, damaged an area of 30,000 km2 across the line of control in India and Pakistan. Balakot, Muzaffarabad, Bagh, and many villages were razed to the ground. Mountain sides fell into rivers, villages disappeared, and civil facilities (roads, telecommunications, electricity, water connections, health units, schools) were severely affected. Some 70% of the dwellings were destroyed (472,000 houses) and the remaining 30% damaged, including school buildings. The disaster is amongst the deadliest in the region in living memory. Official death count was 73, 276 in Pakistan (79,000 unofficial), and 1, 307 in India, with over 85,000 reported as injured.

The earthquake catastrophe had a profound psychological, social, and economic impact. Survivors were gripped by grief, fear, uncertainty, bewilderment, and trauma. In addition to loss of life and damage to property, many suffered livelihood. And, as usual, the weaker of the population, i.e., elderly, women, and children, suffered more. The tragedy generated immediate response in the entire country in the form of monetary and material donations, especially warm clothing. Various volunteer groups, individuals, and professionals reached out to survivors for comfort and care, but the process of psychological recovery in such cases is slow and requires long attention.

The World Bank and Asian Development Bank assessed a preliminary estimation of US$ 5.2 billion for an effective relief, recovery and reconstruction strategy. The Government of Pakistan arranged an international donor conference on November 19, 2005, in Islamabad to discuss the medium and long term reconstruction needs. Several countries, international agencies and non-government organizations offered relief aid in the form of funds, helicopters, technical personnel, doctors as well as medical aid, such as medicine, tents, blankets, etc.

Northern Pakistan is a region where moderate to major plate boundary earthquakes are common, e.g., the 1974 Pattan Earthquake of mb 6.0; the 1977 Rawalpindi Earthquake of mb 5.2; the two 2002 Bunji earthquakes of mb 5.3 and 6.0; and 2004 Batagram earthquakes of mb 5.3 and 5.5.

Earlier workers [e.g., 1, 2, 3] hinted at the possibility of the occurrence of a long overdue great earthquake in the area before the occurrence of October 08, 2005 catastrophe. It has also been suggested [4, 5] that inspite of its widespread destruction, the October 08 earthquake has not released the energy that has been developed since the previous great earthquake of 1855. The NW-SE oriented thrust/reverse focal mechanism solution of the aftershocks of this earthquake is indicative of the reactivation of the Indus Kohistan Seismic Zone, whereas the right-lateral component, supported by the surface evidence, suggests the involvement of Balakot-Bagh fault. In sharp contrast to previous Himalayan earthquakes, a surface ruptures of 90 km developed between Bagh and Balakot with mean vertical separation of 3-4 m right-lateral slips. The earthquake also triggered hundreds of landslides in the area, majority of which occurred along the active faults, but also natural slopes and road cuts.

The disaster acted as a wake up call for the country. Several workshops and conferences have been held. Various universities and organizations have started paying serious attention to earthquake related studies through improved facilities, e.g., installation of seismic simulator and strong motion instrument program (NWFP, UET), establishment of national network of seismic sensors (Pakistan Meteorological  Department),
paleoseismic studies (Geological survey of Pakistan), geodetic measurements using GPS (NCE Geol), seismic hazard assessment (Earth Sciences Dept., QAU), and establishment of Earthquake Studies Centre (NCP, QAU). The Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA), Government of Pakistan, started functioning soon after the occurrence of the disaster in the earthquake affected areas in twelve major socio-economic sectors, especially the housing and town planning. ERRA initially concentrated on some of the immediate tasks, such as saving lives and securing the dignity of affected population, appropriate arrangements of winterized tents and shelters in high altitude mountains, and making schools and health facilities functional. The ministry of Housing and Works revised and updated the seismic building code of Pakistan (SBC-07) in March 2007. Countrywide implementation of SBC-07 will go a long way in reducing the seismic risk in Pakistan.

REFERENCES

1. Bilham, R., Gaur, V. K., and Molnar, P., 2001. Science, 1442-1444.
2. Bilham, R., Wallace, K., 2005. Geol. Surv. India, Spl. Pub. 85, 1-14.
3. MonaLisa, Khwaja, A. A., and Javed, M., 2004. Geol. Bull. Univ. Peshawar, 37, 199-214.
4. Bilham, R., 2005. Science, 308, 1126.